Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,640$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(6.49 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,082.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,082.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,223$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(343 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,015.5}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,015.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,426$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $251,338$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,159.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(303,159.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,861$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(280 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,149.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 75.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,149.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $101,510$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,083,341$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,591,283.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,591,283.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $50,591$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,472.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(61,472.1\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $444,632$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $242,355$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{704,182.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 114.2)}}\) (asimptote \(704,182.9\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,479$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,045.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 109.0)}}\) (asimptote \(22,045.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,307$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,388$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(206 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,199.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 91.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,199.7\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $773$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,563.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,563.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,161$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,836$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{230,221.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 116.7)}}\) (asimptote \(230,221.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,353$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(64.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,512.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 186.2)}}\) (asimptote \(124,512.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,071$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,785$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(497 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,011$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(62.5 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,410.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 99.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,410.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,046$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $314$ on 2020-06-21
Best fit exponential: \(0.0497 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{382.9}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 91.5)}}\) (asimptote \(382.9\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $200$ on 2020-06-21
